Brexit. Summary.

Deal or no deal?
By JOHNREDWOOD | Published: OCTOBER 18, 2019

The Withdrawal Agreement is unchanged, so I have no need to update my comments on it which set out the problems with it, especially concerning the powers of the ECJ and the money.

The Political Declaration is improved. It now makes it clearer that any joint military actions requires the consent of the UK government. More emphasis is given to basing a future trade relationship around a Free Trade Agreement.

The Declaration whilst confirming we become an independent coastal state for fishing purposes puts our fish back into play with the prospect of a new fishing quota and access based agreement with the EU.

It suggests the future agreement is based on an EU Association Agreement, designed to get countries to converge with the EU prior to joining. This is not a good model. The ECJ remains supreme over issues of EU law in any dispute.

The reworked Northern Ireland protocol raises the issue of how could Northern Ireland extricate from following EU rules and customs practices?

This is an important question, as this draft Withdrawal Treaty does not have an Article 50 allowing unilateral exit.

The United Kingdom European Union membership referendum
, also known as the EU referendum and the Brexit referendum, took place on 23 June 2016 in the United Kingdom (UK) and Gibraltar to ask the electorate if the country should remain a member of, or leave the European Union (EU), under the provisions of the European Union Referendum Act 2015 and also the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000. The referendum resulted in 51.9% of votes being in favour of leaving the EU. Although legally the referendum was non-binding, the government of that time had promised to implement the result, and it initiated the official EU withdrawal process on 29 March 2017, meaning that the UK was due to leave the EU before 11PM on 29 March 2019, UK time, when the two-year period for Brexit negotiations expired.[1]

Membership of the EU and its predecessors has long been a topic of debate in the United Kingdom. The country joined what were then the three European Communities, principally the European Economic Community (EEC, or "Common Market"), in 1973. A previous referendum on continued membership of the then European Communities (Common Market) was held in 1975, and it was approved by 67.2% of those who voted.

In May 2015, in accordance with a Conservative Party manifesto commitment following their victory at the 2015 UK general election, the legal basis for a referendum on EU membership was established by the UK Parliament through the European Union Referendum Act 2015. Britain Stronger in Europe was the official group campaigning for the UK to remain in the EU, and was endorsed by the Prime Minister David Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne. Vote Leave was the official group campaigning for the UK to leave the EU, and was fronted by the Conservative MP Boris Johnson, Secretary of State for Justice Michael Gove and Labour MP Gisela Stuart. Other campaign groups, political parties, businesses, trade unions, newspapers and prominent individuals were also involved, and each side had supporters from across the political spectrum.

Immediately after the result, financial markets reacted negatively worldwide, and Cameron announced that he would resign as Prime Minister and Leader of the Conservative Party, having campaigned unsuccessfully for a "Remain" vote. It was the first time that a national referendum result had gone against the preferred option of the UK Government. Cameron was succeeded by Home Secretary Theresa May on 13 July 2016. The opposition Labour Party also faced a leadership challenge as a result of the EU referendum. Several campaign groups and parties (supporting both leave and remain) have been fined by the Electoral Commission for campaign finance irregularities, with the fines imposed on Leave.EU and BeLeave constrained by the cap on the commission's fines. There is also an ongoing investigation into possible Russian interference in the referendum.[]

The UK’s democratic crisis – over 3 years in the making
We present: “My Foreign Friend’s Guide to Brexit and UK Democracy”

The rest of the world is looking on with astonishment and incredulity at the state of democracy in the country which is generally seen as its birthplace.

Just as with the media in the UK, significant elements of the non-EU foreign media are pro-EU - mainly because their Brussels correspondents “go native” and their newsdesks back home know little about the EU, thinking it’s a trading bloc. Those that do know something tend to be of the ‘open borders, love everyone equally’ persuasion.

Here, then is your handy Brexit Facts4EU.Org summary for your friends in other countries. Readers may also find this useful for their British Remainer friends.

Brexit Summaries Time Line
BREXIT FACTS4EU.ORG SUMMARY === “My Foreign Friend’s Guide to Brexit and UK Democracy”

In 2016 the British people voted
to leave the European Union in the largest vote for anything, ever The Government, all parties, and all campaign groups – for and against Brexit – committed to honour the result The Prime Minister even promised to give notice to the EU “the next day” if the people voted to leave There was no condition on whether to leave only on the EU’s terms – the choice was Remain or Leave Nothing happened for the next nine months

The Government broke its promise to the voters
and failed to give notice the next day Prime Minister Cameron resigned and the new PM (Theresa May) was appointed The new PM chose a new Cabinet of ministers which was 74% pro-EU (i.e. had voted to Remain) She delayed giving notice to the EU for nine months and eventually did so on 29 March 2017 Eventually our pro-Remain Parliament voted by five-to-one to give notice to the EU The formal notice under the EU Treaty terms did not include a trade deal until after the UK had left The snap General Election of June 2017

Prime Minister May called an election when polls were favourable
Her (Conservative) party’s campaign was lamentable and she ended up with no majority She was forced to enter an agreement with the main Northern Ireland party (DUP) to hang on to power Both major parties – Conservative and Labour – campaigned on manifestos promising to respect the EU Referendum result More than 80% of all votes went to parties committed to honouring the people’s decision in 2016 The two-year notice period (known as “Article 50” of the EU Treaty)

Despite having had a year since the British people voted to leave,

the EU wasn’t ready until June 2017
Negotiations started, but in March 2018 the PM removed all power from her Brexit Secretary On 26 June Parliament voted for the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018, with 29 Mar 2019 as exit day The PM gave power to unelected pro-EU civil servants, who negotiated a “Withdrawal Agreement” (WA) The WA was in effect a surrender treaty, and in early 2019 it was rejected by Parliament three times The vote against it was one of the biggest in Parliamentary history and both Remain and Leave MPs rejected it A quick note about the non-problem of Northern Ireland

UK Customs, Republic of Ireland Customs,
UK Customs, Republic of Ireland Customs and the EU Parliament’s own Customs expert dismissed this They did so back in 2016 & 2017, then were prevented from working together by the Irish government and the EU The Customs teams of both countries said “there is NO need for infrastructure at the border” Solutions existed then, and they exist now This whole issue was dreamt up by the EU to keep the UK in the EU Delay after delay, frustrating Brexit With her ‘deal’ roundly rejected, the

PM sought an extension to the two-year notice period
Instead of leaving the EU on 29 March, the date was put back to 12 April – the legality of this is still questioned The PM then sought yet another extension, to 31 Oct 2019 As part of this, she agreed to stand down as Prime Minister which she finally did on 24 July 2019 She did so on the back of the Conservatives coming an astonishing fifth in the EU Parliament elections The Brexit Party of Nigel Farage was the clear winner, and it is now the biggest party in the EU Parliament The Boris bounce

Boris Johnson,
a prominent leader of the Leave campaign in 2016 and former Foreign Secretary,

Boris Johnson became PM
He was elected by Conservative party members across the country Faced with finally having to live up to the promises on which they were elected, some MPs started quitting Since then he has also removed 21 more – they stay in Parliament but are no longer officially Conservative MPs The Conservative Party received a major ‘bounce’ in the polls since Mr Johnson became PM The present day – and the astonishing events in ‘the Mother of all Parliaments’

In Parliament, the Government of the day normally controls the daily business

Remainer MPs have combined to take control of Parliament
, with the Speaker overturning centuries of tradition

The Speaker is an ardent Remainer
, he is supposed to be impartial, but sadly he is not An Act has been passed which dictates that the Government cannot implement the will of the people The Act receives Royal Assent tomorrow (Monday) and the Government can no longer govern on this issue The decision on when the UK can leave the EU will have been passed to the EU The Prime Minister must obey, or face prison The truth about these dire days for British democracy

Boris Johnson is trying to implement the will of the people
, defined in the largest vote for anything in UK history A majority of MPs in Parliament, despite being elected to do so, are refusing These MPs have removed power from the Government and are taking it for themselves Worse, they refuse to submit themselves to a decision by the voters The PM asked for a General Election on Friday – denied by anti-democratic MPs and parties He will ask again tomorrow (Monday) – he will again be denied, by anti-democratic MPs and their parties Summary

What is more democratic than asking the people who they want to lead them? What are the MPs in Parliament afraid of? Losing their seats, perhaps...? OBSERVATIONS We live in dark days, where MPs who stood on manifestos saying one thing are now doing another. If this involved only a handful, this would not be unusual.

Unfortunately the country is now facing a majority of Parliamentary MPs deliberately flaunting any semblance of democratic legitimacy. They are doing so on the biggest political issue of our age.

This issue was already decided by the British people in 2016. They may not like it, but it was the decision of the people.

For three years and three months these MPs have done everything they can to delay and block Brexit. The British people might be a patient lot, but we suspect that this patience is very rapidly running out.

To our overseas readers, we hope this summary was useful. One of the greatest exercises in democracy took place on 23 June 2016. One of the worst exercises in the destruction of democracy is now taking place by a few hundred elected representatives in the UK Parliament.

We leave you, dear overseas reader, to decide whether a Government which is happy to go to the people for a renewed mandate is acting correctly, or whether to back those who would deny the people their democratic right in circumstances such as these. You may also wish to question why the majority of Parliament wants to give the decision of when and how to leave the EU to the EU itself, instead of simply implementing the decision of the British people to leave.

These are, as we wrote above, dark times. If you would like us to keep going, please donate something today. Thank you.

[ Sources: Almost four years of detailed research, contained in our daily reports ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sun 08 Sep 2019

Revised. BIAS AT WIKI “broad consensus among economists is that Brexit will likely reduce the UK&#39;s real per capita income in the medium term and long term, and that the Brexit referendum itself had damaged the economy. “ NOT Lawson &amp; Mervyn King who Say the OPPOSITE; Blackwater River (@BlackwaterRive2) September 9, 2019

EXTENSION: EU MOVES IN FOR THE KILL
=== REVEALED: THE HIDDEN BOMB IN THE EU’s EXTENSION OFFER === If Boris Johnson accepts the EU’s offer of an extension, genuine Leave voters will have no choice but to desert the Conservative Party https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2019/10/28/revealed-the-hidden-bomb-in-the-eus-extension-offer/?unapproved=839696&moderation-hash=fbe74afc6b81301f6c7c4b7b1be892ef#comment-839696

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Various UK media have been crawling all over the hints and leaks from a Brussels “keen to make clear its neutrality” this morning. It is looking increasingly like a 3-month extension. BUT the clauses in it that I saw last night made brutally clear to anyone who’s awake that the EC is being anything but neutral.

Original Brexit articles researched from official EU and UK sources, 7 days-a-week
Friday, October 18, 2019, 05:31

Forget Westminster politics, is Boris’s new EU treaty Brexit? No, it’s not
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Layman’s summary of the EU’s new UK colonisation treaty agreed by the PM yesterday
Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

This is ‘May Mk2’ – the EU’s latest colonisation treaty for the UK

Prepared by Brexit Facts4EU.Org with advice from a Brussels-based barrister

Legend: ‘WA’ = Withdrawal Agreement, ‘PD’ = Political Declaration

1. Parliament will not be sovereign – UK still to be governed by existing and new laws of the ECJ – a foreign court – and with no say over these laws. [WA articles 4, 87, 89 and 127, PD para 131]

2. Demands payment of a sum to be decided by the EU – Minimum £39 billion but this is likely to increase and the EU decides the final sum. This must be paid BEFORE any trade deal is agreed. [WA articles 138-144, and 152-155]

3. No trade deal with EU – Not included as this is just a divorce treaty. Any EU trade deal must ensure “a level playing field for open and fair competition” and “deep regulatory and customs cooperation”. This will make it difficult for the UK to reduce non-tariff barriers in trade deals with USA, Australia, China, etc. [PD paras 17 & 21]

4. Prevents independent tax policy – Political Declaration still obliges UK to adopt a future relationship which will impose EU State Aid rules and “relevant tax matters” on the UK. EU specifically intends to curb UK’s ability to have “harmful tax practices”. Withdrawal Treaty also applies EU law to UK during transition period – allowing EU to sue UK, including infringement proceedings for as yet unidentified breaches of State Aid rules and billions in VAT on commodity derivative transactions dating back to 1970s. [PD para 77, WA articles 86, 93, 127].

5. Restricts independent foreign policy – UK to be bound by international agreements concluded by the EU despite having no influence in their negotiation during the transition period and must “refrain, during the transition period, from any action… which is likely to be prejudicial” to the interests of the EU. [Articles 129(3) and (6)].

6. Prevents independent military action – UK permanently stopped from taking “any action likely to conflict with or impede” EU’s foreign policies. Critical parts of section on foreign policy and security are not reciprocal, eg future relationship will not “prejudice the decision-making autonomy of the EU” but no such language for UK – only permitted to “maintain the right to determine how [to respond] to any invitation to participate in operations or missions”. Also, parties “agree to consider” security collaboration in European Defence Agency, European Defence Fund, and PESCO “to the extent possible under [EU law]” which is prescriptive (not permissive) obligation. Despite paying for European Defence Agency during transition, British troops in EU battlegroups will not be led by British staff officers. [WA articles 129(6-7) and 156-157, PD paras 99, 102(c)]

7. Controls UK fishing – Common Fisheries Policy continues in UK waters during transition (which can be extended) but UK will have no say in implementation or enforcement. After transition, Political Declaration requires “cooperation on… regulation of fisheries, in a non-discriminatory manner” – code for continuing current arrangements for EU access to UK waters. Any trade deal to “ensure service providers and investors are treated in a non-discriminatory manner, including with regard to establishment” – prevents UK protecting quotas from EU purchase. [PD paras 29 and 72]

8. Replaces one EU Commission with another – New body established with “powers equivalent to those of the European Commission”. UK must accept exclusive jurisdiction of Arbitration Panel and judgments of ECJ. Grants EU officials criminal immunity and exemption from UK tax. Imposes gagging order on UK which must keep all EU information confidential but EU can use UK information as it sees fit. [WA articles 74, 101, 104-5, 106-116, 159, 168, 174]

9. Leaves UK with €500bn liabilities from EU Investment Bank but no profits – No rights to past and future profits made from UK investment in EIB, no rights to UK share of assets of EIB, yet UK remaining liable for risk of up to €500bn of guarantees. UK must let EU bid for UK public projects at least during transition. [WA articles 34, 75-78, 127, 143, 147, 150].

10. EU colonisation – makes UK bystander in laws that govern it – UK permitted to send civil servant to Brussels to observe EU passing laws designed to disadvantage UK economy during transition which might last many years. EU could regulate London’s huge foreign exchange markets, impose financial transaction tax that would be collected at UK expense by HMRC but sent to foreign governments. [WA article 34]

https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/