This is a #SAM Seat.
Ashton-under-Lyne Angela Rayner Rayner is quite popular in her constituency, and increased her vote in 2017….but only in line with the national trend. Turnout was particularly low:
Despite a high share of the vote, Rayner’s majority of 11,295 is not unassailable when you consider that 26,000 didn’t vote. They didn’t vote (probably) because this has always been a “safe” Labour seat. However, two thirds of voters opted to Leave in the referendum on a much bigger turnout, so the potential is obviously there.
This is an unwinnable seat for the Tories, but clearly has potential for the Brexit Party. It is ludicrous for BoJo to put up a candidate here, and it would be far better for the country if no Conservative stood.
Therefore, the SAM formula in Ashton-under-Lyne is:
Punish the Conservatives.
Vote Brexit Party.
Vote even if you didn’t in 2017, and vote Brexit if you still want to Leave.
(Needless to say, TBP’s sub-tactic has to be to get the abstainers from 2017 to SAM by voting Brexit)